The two most recent enrollment projections for Jefferson County Schools were prepared in 2015 and 2020 using housing growth data collected by the County’s Office of Impact Fees that was analyzed by the TischlerBise consulting firm to project future enrollment trends. TischlerBise broke down the data by housing type and size and applies a “pupil generation rate” calculated using survey data collected by the US Census bureau for the local region. Both the 2015 and 2020 projections showed steady enrollment growth, but were based on assumptions of housing growth that did not happen in Jefferson County — until the last two years (see The Observer, February 2023). If the recent uptick in housing growth continues, the calculations used by TischlerBise would project a gradual rise in school enrollment, reaching 9,500 by the 2029-30 school year.
By Steve PearsonHousing Trends And School Enrollment Projections
